A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
