Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
